Here’s a summary of what I found on Artrya Ltd (ASX: AYA) — current price, financials, and my thoughts on timing. This isn’t investment advice, but should help you make a more informed decision.
Key Data & Current Price
Balance Sheet & Financial Health
Here are some important points from the most recent financial reports:
- Total Assets: ~AUD 23.68 million in FY2025.
- Total Liabilities: ~AUD 2.39 million.
- Debt: Very low. Debt is small in relation to assets; the company is using equity / cash more than debt.
- Cash Flow from Operations: Negative, in the order of –AUD 14-15 million in the latest period. That means cash is being burned.
- Cash on Hand / Liquidity: The cash reserves are modest; the company has been raising capital (including placements) to fund growth and expansion.
Valuation & Analyst Views
- One analyst target places a 12-month price target at AUD 3.06 per share. That would imply ~40% upside from the current price.
- But there are warnings: with very little revenue, large losses, and dilution risk (because of recent and expected capital raises), some models (discounted cash flow etc.) suggest the current price may be overvalued relative to intrinsic value.
- Indeed, one analysis reduced its valuation estimate to ~$3.06 from ~$3.48 due to dilution and rising costs.
What Looks Good / What’s Risky
Strengths:
- Innovative product in AI for coronary artery disease; has regulatory clearances (e.g. FDA for some modules) which is a positive signal.
- Good balance sheet in terms of liabilities: low debt, which gives it more flexibility.
- Strong upside potential if the company can convert regulatory wins + product adoption into revenue. Also, recent capital raising suggests belief (by investors) in growth potential.
Risks:
- Very low revenue now; losses are large and cash burn is high. That means the company must grow quickly or else more dilution / capital raises may be needed.
- Valuation is high relative to its current earnings and book value; the market seems to be pricing in a lot of future success. If growth doesn’t accelerate, the downside risk is non-trivial.
- Dilution risk: recent placements / equity raises can reduce value per share for existing shareholders.
When Might It Be a “Good Time to Buy”?
Putting together the above, here are some thoughts on timing. Again, depends on how much risk you’re willing to take.
- If you are optimistic on the long-term prospects (product adoption, US expansion, regulatory approvals, etc.), then buying now could capture potential upside, especially if the company executes well. The current price is high but part of that reflects future potential.
- A more conservative route would be to wait for evidence of revenue growth (e.g. quarterly reports showing sales climbing and losses narrowing) before committing more capital.
- Another trigger could be major contract wins or partnerships, especially in the US or other large markets, or successful results from studies (e.g. the “SAPPHIRE” study referenced in some materials) that validate the technology.
- Also, watch for dilution events: if a share issue is coming at a discount, waiting could avoid buying ahead of that and suffering from dilution.
My View
If I were you and interested in Artrya:
- I’d say it’s high-risk, high-reward. There is real potential, but everything hinges on execution — getting revenue, managing cash, scaling well.
- I think the risk/reward might be more favorable if the price dips somewhat (maybe due to short-term negatives) or after some negative event (like a weaker quarter) when expectations are scaled back. Those dips often provide better entry points.
- If you believe strongly in their AI tech and think the industry tailwinds (healthcare, AI, diagnostic/AI tools) are in their favor, then some exposure seems reasonable — but keep it modest unless results improve.
If you like, I can run a scenario analysis (best case / mid / worst case) for Artrya with projected outcomes, to help you see what price targets might be realistic under different conditions. Do you want me to do that?